Chinese exporters are ramping up preparations to resume shipments to the United States, as trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing are set to begin in Switzerland.

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For weeks, U.S. tariffs have cast a shadow over trade flows, with President Donald Trump’s April 10 move to impose steep 145% tariffs on Chinese goods triggering retaliatory 125% tariffs from China. This tit-for-tat escalation has dragged trade between the two economic giants to a near standstill.

According to logistics firm Flexport, sailings from China to the U.S. plunged 60% in April, and German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd saw 30% of China-bound orders canceled. But signs of a thaw are emerging.

Since late April, Chinese freight forwarders have been actively booking container space for mid-May departures, two industry executives told Reuters on condition of anonymity. Four China-based exporters — some supplying major U.S. retailers like Walmart — said they are preparing to resume shipments, marking a shift after weeks of halted orders.

Optimism has grown as both governments adopt a softer tone. With talks scheduled in Geneva and Trump hinting at a possible tariff rollback, exporters are cautiously hopeful that some relief is on the horizon.

“We’re all looking forward to some easing of the tariffs this month. I believe it’s coming,” said Liu, a second-generation toy manufacturer from Dongguan. Half her sales typically go to U.S. buyers, including Walmart.

But it’s not just optimism driving the resurgence.

Many American retailers are running dangerously low on inventory. Products such as toys, home furnishings, and Bluetooth speakers — which are difficult to source outside China — have been stranded as businesses waited out the trade dispute. Chinese exporters warn that without fresh shipments by June, U.S. store shelves could start to empty.

“Companies are running out of stock, and Trump has softened his China rhetoric,” said Jonathan Chitayat, Asia head of Genimex Group, a contract manufacturer. The looming risk of “empty shelves in 30 to 60 days” is pushing U.S. buyers to act, he added, regardless of whether tariffs remain in place.

Liu confirmed that shipments would restart this month, though volumes will be smaller. She cautioned that without tariff relief, American consumers will ultimately shoulder the extra costs.

Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, noted that some recovery in shipping was unavoidable. “These economies are deeply intertwined, and both are feeling the pain,” he said. The recent collapse in trade followed months of pre-tariff stockpiling, he explained, adding that many now expect an improvement in the tariff landscape.

Walmart, for its part, said it had not halted purchases from any country and is working closely with suppliers to manage the fluid situation.

Meanwhile, freight costs are expected to rise as shipping rebounds. Dominic Desmarais of Liya Solutions said freight forwarders are forecasting price hikes of up to $500 per container after May 15. Currently, a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles costs between $2,640 and $3,781, according to Freightos.

Still, Desmarais warned against overly rosy expectations. “When Trump imposed 25% tariffs in 2018, it took two years to reach a deal. I don’t think a few days in Switzerland will solve this,” he said.