Despite steep U.S. tariffs and rising political tensions, Chinese exports to the United States continue to flow at remarkable levels—highlighting Beijing’s enduring grip on key global supply chains.

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Six months into former President Donald Trump’s renewed trade war, China is still shipping roughly $1 billion worth of goods to the U.S. every day, according to data cited by Bloomberg. Exports even edged higher in September compared with August, defying expectations that the 55% average U.S. tariff would curb trade.

While overall U.S.–China trade has fallen sharply this year, China’s dominance in strategic sectors—from rare earths and electronics to critical manufacturing materials—is proving difficult to replace. Analysts say that gives Beijing short-term bargaining power as trade negotiations continue.

“China’s strong position in global supply chains gives it some bargaining power with U.S. importers in the near term,” Bloomberg economists Chang Shu and David Qu wrote. “Realigning production will take time.”

That leverage comes at a pivotal moment. The two nations are preparing for talks to extend a 90-day tariff truce that expires in November. In the third quarter alone, Chinese firms exported more than $100 billion in goods to the U.S., helping keep China’s economy on track to meet growth targets and widening the bilateral trade surplus to $67 billion.

Trump, meanwhile, has signaled optimism about striking a “good deal” in an expected meeting with President Xi Jinping at a summit in South Korea next week, though he warned the discussions could still falter.

Cracks in the Tariff Wall

Despite aggressive tariff measures, many American firms continue sourcing from China. Loopholes and trans-shipment routes through Mexico and Vietnam have helped some importers minimize duties, analysts say.

“There are a lot of loopholes,” said Zhaopeng Xing, senior China strategist at ANZ Bank. “U.S. Customs just doesn’t have enough manpower to address them.”

Chinese data also shows surprising resilience in specific sectors. Exports of e-cigarettes, e-bikes, and refined copper cathodes all rose in the last quarter. Electrical cable exports jumped 87% to $405 million, while shipments of smartphones, laptops, and computer parts totaled nearly $8 billion—a significant figure given the heavy tariffs.

Even after Washington ended the “de minimis” rule allowing small parcels to enter duty-free, U.S. consumers continue buying from Chinese e-commerce giants like Shein and Temu. Since May, about $5.4 billion in small parcels have been shipped to the U.S., despite the 54% levy.

A Gradual but Uneven Decoupling

Still, the broader trend points toward a slow decoupling between the world’s two largest economies. U.S. imports from China have fallen to around $320 billion this year—comparable to levels seen in 2017, before Trump’s first round of tariffs.

Some sectors are already shifting production elsewhere. Game console makers such as Nintendo and Microsoft now manufacture primarily in Vietnam, while LCD television exports from China to the U.S. plunged 73% last quarter.

Yet, analysts note, total disentanglement remains unlikely. “Both sides may reduce dependence on each other, but it cannot be reduced to zero,” Xing said.

According to the International Monetary Fund, the current downturn in U.S.–China trade has been more severe than the 2018–2019 tariff shock, suggesting that this phase of decoupling could be deeper and longer-lasting.