Chicken Meat Prices Skyrocket Due to Restored Demand in the HoReCa, a Flash of the Bird Flu and Increasing Costs for Grains
IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Chicken Meat – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.
Since the start of 2021, prices in the global chicken meat market shot up as a result of high demand, rising costs for feed grain and food as well as a decreasing rate of chicken slaughter in the EU, South Korea and Japan. Heightened costs for shipping containers are additionally driving the growth in export prices. As of year-end 2021, worldwide production and exports of chicken meat are forecast to remain at the previous year’s level. Demand for chicken meat in China is dropping while the pig population in the country is recovering and hog prices are decreasing. Saudi Arabia’s ban on imports of chicken products from Brazil may lead to diminished exports from that country.
Key Trends and Insights
All around the world this year, prices for chicken meat are growing at a fast pace. According to FAO, export prices for chicken cuts and edible offal from the U.S. spiked from $977 per ton in January 2021 to $1138 per ton in June 2021. The price for broiler meat in the EU during the 29th week of 2021 was at 204.5 euros for 100kg or 10% higher than the same period of the previous year. The price increase is caused by demand growth from the HoReCa sector and retail in western countries, particularly the U.S., high costs for poultry feed and a slow production pace in the EU following a flash of the bird flu. Rising rates for shipping containers is also adding to the increased export prices.
Based on USDA figures, IndexBox calculates that at year-end 2021 chicken meat production globally will remain at 123M tonnes, the same level as the previous year. Falling demand for chicken meat in China is the main factor holding back production growth. China is intensively recovering its hog population after widespread disease led to a major decline in numbers. As a result, prices for swine are decreasing and boosting pork consumption. The high cost for feed grain and lingering impacts of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the EU, South Korea and Japan are also hindering expansion in the poultry industry.
In 2021, chicken meat exports globally will remain at the previous year’s levels. Drops in meat shipments from the EU and Brazil will be offset by an increase in supply from the U.S. and China. The U.S. is the second world’s largest exporter of chicken meat with a 24% market share of global exports. The country will ramp up deliveries by +1% y-o-y to 3.5M tonnes. Chinese exports are projected to grow by 10% y-o-y to 176K tonnes.
Chicken meat exports from Brazil, the largest supplier in the world, will decrease by 3% y-o-y to 3.7M tonnes as a consequence of Saudia Arabia’s ban on imports going into effect in May 2021. The ban specifically focuses on 11 poultry processing plants in Brazil. Saudia Arabia is one of the largest importers of Brazilian chicken meat, but this year, the country will aggressively develop its domestic production and offset the drop in imports from Brazil with shipments from China, Cuba and Angola.
Global Chicken Meat Production by Country
In 2020, the amount of chicken meat produced worldwide rose by +4% to 123M tonnes, growing compared with 2019. In value terms, chicken meat production reached $192.4B in 2020 estimated in export prices.
The countries with the highest volumes of chicken meat production in 2020 were the U.S. (20M tonnes), China (15M tonnes) and Brazil (14M tonnes), together comprising 40% of global production. These countries were followed by Russia, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Japan, Iran, Argentina, Poland, Turkey and Peru, which together accounted for a further 25%.
Global Chicken Meat Exports by Country
In 2020, the amount of chicken meat exported worldwide rose slightly to 15M tonnes, growing by +3.9% compared with the previous year’s figure. In value terms, chicken meat exports contracted slightly to $21.6B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.
Brazil (3.9M tonnes) and the U.S. (3.5M tonnes) represented roughly 49% of total exports of chicken meat in 2020. It was distantly followed by the Netherlands (1.4M tonnes) and Poland (1.2M tonnes), together creating a 17% share of total exports. The following exporters – Turkey (516K tonnes), Belgium (439K tonnes), Ukraine (430K tonnes), the UK (427K tonnes), Thailand (341K tonnes), Germany (295K tonnes) and France (228K tonnes) – together made up 18% of total exports.
In 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Turkey (+68.0% per year), while exports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the largest chicken meat supplying countries worldwide were Brazil ($5.5B), the U.S. ($3.4B) and the Netherlands ($2.5B), together accounting for 53% of global exports. These countries were followed by Poland, Thailand, Belgium, Ukraine, Germany, Turkey, France and the UK, which together accounted for a further 28%.
The average chicken meat export price stood at $1,451 per tonne in 2020, declining by -8.3% against the previous year. In 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the U.S., while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.
Source: IndexBox Platform
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