Canadian Provinces Brace for Rising Borrowing Costs Amid US Tariff Threats
Canadian provinces are bracing for an increase in their borrowing costs as impending US tariffs threaten to stifle economic growth. Bloomberg reports that shrinking trade could lead to decreased provincial tax revenues, potentially escalating borrowing needs and resulting in higher risk premiums on provincial debt.
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According to Dominique Lapointe, director of macro strategy at Manulife Investment Management, the impact of potential tariffs isn’t yet reflected in provincial debt spreads but may soon exacerbate financial challenges. Analysts, including those from Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, project that even a 20% tariff could widen provincial spreads on 10-year maturities by up to 12 basis points. This additional borrowing cost could translate to an estimated C$162 million in extra interest annually, as provinces are expected to borrow around C$135 billion in fiscal 2025.
Ontario, Canada’s largest province, recently sold C$750 million in bonds, securing a spread of 60 basis points over the government benchmark. This highlights investor demands for higher premiums in light of potential economic disruptions. Bloomberg Economics further emphasizes that broad tariffs could impact Canada and Mexico significantly, with predictions of a swift economic downturn for Canada should a trade war arise.
While provinces are exploring ways to counteract the tariff impact, such as pre-funding debt, experts agree that these measures offer limited relief. According to Sameer Rehman from the Bank of Montreal, the Canadian fixed-income market has shown resilience, though gradual economic diversification away from US dependency remains a daunting task. As provinces explore increased domestic trade, longstanding inter-provincial trade barriers present additional hurdles to economic adaptation.
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