“Rick, I am shocked, shocked to find out that gambling is going on here!” So said Captain Renault to Humphrey Bogart in Casablanca.

Right. … And we may as well feign the same shock over trading partners using currency manipulations to drive down the cost of their exports. That this “revelation” is giving the White House pause over the implementation of the Trans-Pacific Trade Agreement is in itself, well, shocking. Whether you have emerging economies like Vietnam or established partners like South Korea, of course they will manipulate their currency whenever they feel the need. In some of the smaller nations, the governments are just trying to live to see another day and will do whatever is needed to keep their exports moving along.

America needs Latino workers. They are the backbone of our economy. As one Latino leader put it to me, “We cook your food, we paint your homes, we mow your lawn.” What’s more, thousands of Latinos are among the nation’s hardest working entrepreneurs thriving in hundreds of different industries. If any of our political leaders gave even 20 minutes of focused thought to our Latino immigration “crisis,” they could solve it. It doesn’t have to be more complicated than this:

Complete the fence between the U.S.-Mexican border. That’s a matter of national security.

All undocumented people currently living in the U.S. need to register for the “pathway to citizenship.” In doing so they are designated “Applicants.” Pathway to citizenship should be a two-step program.

STEP ONE: Applicants between the ages of 18 and 65 need to find a job within 12 months and be able to produce a paycheck stub or they get deported. The vast majority are already working so this should not be a big issue. Youngsters, students and the elderly are exempt and can skip this step. Those who have jobs—or because of their age are exempt—are designated “provisional citizens” but are not entitled to any benefits of citizenship and cannot vote.

STEP TWO: Once they become “provisional,” the next step is to take and pass the naturalization citizen test—in English. Once they pass it, they get citizenship, assuming they can still verify employment if they are between ages 18 and 65 and not enrolled in school. And youngsters under 18 can qualify for citizenship after three years of schooling.

For it to work, we have to keep it simple. And, we have to get over this mentality of “it’s not fair to the people who stood in line.” We’re at where we’re at. Let’s make the best of it and allow them to make the best of their lives. It will be good for them and good for America.

What does Obama’s plan for “free” community college tuition have to do with exports? You be the judge. First, we over-emphasize college and make kids feel inferior if they don’t pursue it. That’s wrong because many kids aren’t cut out for college. What’s more, there are many manufacturing jobs paying $80,000 a year (with a shortage of workers) that don’t require a college degree. Our “college-driven” society unfairly degrades blue-collar jobs. But these jobs can be fun and very rewarding—if that’s how you’re wired.

Whether high tech or low tech, it’s fun to work with your hands and build things. But over-emphasizing college with free tuition will shame some high school grads out of the manufacturing sector, which may be their first choice, and therefore stymie America’s manufacturing growth and exports—and worse, potentially set these students on a course for an unsatisfying career.

With Mitt Romney, we had the chance to have a business executive run the country which would have been nice. But I didn’t share his hard-line rhetoric toward China. Is China building up its navy? Yes, but all developed nations do that. I don’t see China taking over the world, militarily or economically. To be sure, their economy is big and growing, but that’s good news for everybody as we can now export more goods to their growing middle class. And take a look at where China is focusing their investments worldwide. For years we were worried that they were a closed society. Now we worry that they’re going to take over the world. We want them investing in the world. And here’s something else: their communistic regime will be replaced internally by a democracy sooner than later. The Chinese are simply too good of businessmen to put up with Communism for too much longer. And when that happens, they will be the world’s biggest democracy, but then we’ll probably worry about that too. 

It would appear that John Kerry and Company is doing everything it can to reinitiate a cold war with Russia. Now we hear that the US is “open” to imposing trade sanctions should Ukrainian authorities “violently” quash anti-government protests over cozying up with Russia. Once again we are messing where we should not be messing. Trade between Ukraine and Russia is quite frankly, none of our business. But, says the State Department, it’s not just trade ties but political ties that Ukraine and Russia are strengthening. And your point it what? Of course political ties strengthen when trade ties strengthen—the two go hand in hand. That’s why we have as our motto, “global peace through global trade.”

If you’ve ever had a high powered meeting with the Japanese, you know that it’s an exotic cocktail of cultural nuances, bluffing, innuendoes, fabricated politeness, patience, and serendipitous conversation. The ubiquitous Japanese interpreter was at once the fall guy and the point man, but always a part of the conversational drama. Well that’s all changing, especially at Honda which recently announced that heretofore, English will be the official language of the company. How boring!

Is NAFTA good for business? Yes. Is it good for American jobs? Depends on who you ask. US Government data claims that the US economy has lost around 845,000 jobs because of increased imports from Canada and Mexico. OK….but like any data, there are caveats. Is that a net loss of jobs? Were those manufacturing jobs replaced by new industry jobs? What about increased jobs in the transportation sector to get those goods from A to B? How many of those jobs were lost to an increase in the use of robotics in manufacturing? I hate to say this but…..most of the government data is produced by employees of public sector unions which makes you wonder if data analysis is being skewed toward union agendas?

Though I question his business acumen and wonder if all his decisions are politically motivated, President Obama—and for that matter any US president—should have “fastrack” trade authority. Congress has the constitutional authority to regulate global trade but the executive branch has the authority to forge trade agreements with other governments. Interesting to note however is that even Harry Reid doesn’t trust President Obama in this area. I’m not quite sure what that means except to underscore how political any business decisions have become these days in Washington. But to succeed as a nation, we have to put our economic growth ahead of politics.

Micro exporters of BMWs are running afoul of the law, or are they? For several years now, enterprising entrepreneurs have been buying BMWs, most notably X5s, at sticker rates of $56,025 and selling them in China for $153,176. It’s a win for U.S. dealers who get to sell a BMW at sticker price, a win for the customer in China because he gets to buy the car of his dreams and a win for the arbitraging exporter who takes the risk and arranges the transportation and transaction details. What could be wrong with that? Well, let’s just say it doesn’t sit well with BMW. A spokesperson for Daimler AG maintains that “Vehicles exported to other countries undermines our pricing and volume positioning in the U.S. and other worldwide markets.” So what if it does? It sounds like BMW is upset that micro exporters are profiting from the sale of cars to China—and not them—and they have convinced the feds, who are only too happy these days to flex their muscles, to seize their bank accounts and cars in transit at ports. It sounds like the Boston Tea Party all over again only this time the roles are reversed. Note to Eric Holder: This is America, a country founded on the principles of free trade. You might want to reexamine why the American colonies adapted the phrase “Don’t tread on me.”

Global air freight is expected to grow 17 percent over the next five years, according to the International Air Transport Association. We think it will be more like 25 percent to 27 percent. Here’s why: China is expected to add more than 1 million additional cargo tons by 2017, matching the predicted increase for the U.S. over the same period. But stop the presses: China’s middle class is currently about 300 million and is expected to grow to more than 1 billion by 2017—roughly 80 percent of its entire population. This has staggering implications for U.S. exporters. As China’s middle class grows—almost exponentially—we look for an increase in demand for iconic consumer products, many of which traditionally favor air cargo.

What’s good for the goose is good for the gander. Right? So when we see that the U.S. accounted for 22 percent of worldwide GDP in 2013, down from 31 percent in 2000, are we to think our better days are behind us? Not at all. The more developing nations develop, the more they will snap up our exports.

It’s all good.

 JP Morgan’s $13 billion “settlement” with the Justice Department is nothing short of extortion by Attorney General Eric Holder. All Americans should be educated and outraged by this. Keep in mind that the feds, led by Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, practically pleaded with JP Morgan to bail out Bear Stearns and WaMu with their toxic mortgages in the first place. And keep in mind that it was the federal government that pushed risky lending practices into the marketplace and onto people who could not afford a home loan. Come on… zero to 3 percent down for a mortgage? What were they smoking? And now Holder comes along and pins the blame on JP Morgan? Even more Orwellian is President Obama threatening the health insurance companies to change their underwriting procedures and extend benefits to bail him out of his failing health overhaul, and making vague threats through his Health and Human Services secretary if they don’t. Make no mistake: If we allow the Justice Department to extort our largest bank and get away with it, the insurance companies are next. When does it end? Hopefully in 2016.

American capitalists spend too little time thinking about Mexico and even less about Canada. Ready to be astonished? Every day nearly $2 billion in goods and services crosses the U.S./Canadian border, and almost $1 billion crosses between the U.S. and Mexico. As the ancient Chinese proverb goes, the best time to plant a tree was 10 years ago. But in business, it’s never too late to jump in.

How’s your Spanish?

The worst thing we can do to Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar is to keep them on the foreign-aid dole. All this does is foster corruption while de-incentivizing their governments to create an environment for entrepreneurism to flourish. Welfare hasn’t worked in our inner cities and it doesn’t work when we export it to other countries.

Trade wars are not only irrelevant, they’re obsolete, as underscored by the weak “settlement” the European Commission (EC) made with China over their $23 billion in solar panel exports to the EC. In the end, China agreed to not export solar panels for less than .56 euros—about 74 cents—per watt, which was about 25 percent lower than when the case began. So much for the negotiating skills of EC trade ministers. However, it does speak volumes for the ability of the Chinese to negotiate and exploit just how incestuous our global economy has become.

Undermining the EC’s negotiating position was the fact that other European countries that didn’t have a dog in the fight liked paying the lower cost for the Chinese imports and lobbied the EC trade commissioner to butt out. But the real fly in the ointment it turns out is that while Germany is the major producer of European solar panels, other German companies were supplying the Chinese with the manufacturing equipment needed to make the solar panels in the first place. Note to the U.S. in our own solar panel “trade war” with the Chinese: Quit while you’re ahead.

For the past four years, the U.S. has been spending about $20 billion a week more than we take in—roughly $1 trillion a year—which still proves that government can’t grow the economy. While it’s true factory orders are up, to unleash the full potential of our recovery will require the repeal, not the postponement, of Obamacare, which will give businesses the green light they need to invest their huge stockpiles of cash. In the meantime, U.S. companies can turn to exports to grow their sales, and they are. Still, it’s estimated that only 1 percent of all U.S. manufacturers export. That’s a staggeringly low number. Think what will happen when that number grows to 5 and then 10 percent—and it will. Even then, it will still be a fraction of the estimated 40 percent of exporters among all German manufacturers. The message is clear: The U.S. will become an export giant. Now is the time to invest in your business plan to accommodate this inevitable growth.

Remember Japan? Twenty years ago it was all Japan this, Japan that. They dominated the global trade conversation while China’s biggest export contribution to the world was fireworks. With a national debt 2.5 times their GDP, Japan is still in deep Wasabi but poised for an exporting comeback under its new Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe. Part cheerleader, part global trader, Abe is stumping across Japan and personally jumpstarting its economy. It’s highly risky, because Abe plans to deficit spend even more government funds in an attempt to stimulate Japan’s economy. If it works, great. If it doesn’t, Japan will be plunged into an even greater economic sinkhole. This is not the time for the U.S. to isolate Japan. We saw what that led to 72 years ago. A healthy Japan is good for the world which is why I’m encouraged to see the U.S. include Japan in the latest Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement. However, it remains to be seen if the Japanese are willing to trade on an even field.

Media Rule No. 1: Don’t believe everything you read or hear. Just last week I read where container export volume was down. However, those statistics typically lag what’s happening by several months or more. On Aug. 1, the Institute of Supply Management—a trade group of purchasing managers—noted its index of factory activity jumped to 55.4 percent, up from 50.9 percent in June. A reading of 50 or more indicates growth. And factory production is at its highest level since May 2004. If that weren’t enough good news, factory hires are at the highest level in a year. As they say on the farm, now is the time to make hay.

Have you heard of the General System of Preferences (GSP)? Sounds like a yawner, I know. But this little sucker may be eroding your profit margins. Here’s why: GSP is a 37-year-old program that allowed duty-free imports from developing countries, including many raw materials, parts and components used to manufacturer goods in the U.S. both for domestic consumption and U.S. exports. Congress let the program expire July 31, thank you very much. As a result, U.S. manufacturers will now have to pick up the tariffs on these goods and pass it along in their costs. Talk about an unnecessary speed bump to our recovery. Perhaps one day to be elected to Congress you will have to pass a course in global economics. I’m not holding my breath.

Much has been mentioned about ”the teens” being “Africa’s decade.” Let’s not forget there are 55 countries in Africa, 56 if you include Somaliland. There are still some fairly scary players in the group, including Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Burundi, the Congo and, of course, thuggish Somalia. But offsetting these neighborhood bullies are countries like Zambia, which is sub-Saharan Africa’s brightest star. Africa’s decade? Not hardly … but it could be Zambia, Namibia, Botswana, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and Ghana’s decade, for sure. If you want to get a foothold in these African nations, it starts with hiring employees on the ground you can trust. I’ll let you in on a little secret: that search starts with Northrise University graduates. Check it out at northriseuniversity.com.

It’s hard not to be impressed that global tablet sales were up 78 percent in 2012. In fact, manufacturers shipped 128 million of the little suckers. That’s good news for the cargo transportation industry, but I’m not going long on tablets. What are they good for? News? You can get that on your smartphone. Reading magazines? Ask any high school or college kid and they will tell you by a 10-to-1 margin that they prefer to hold a printed magazine in their hands. Books? Maybe … but only because the cost of college textbooks are so outrageous. With some textbooks going for $200 and $300, that would appear to be the best market for tablets. But once a person buys a tablet and spills coffee on it just once, they clamor back to print for their disposable reading. That’s why the smart guys like Warren Buffett and Aaron Kushner are buying up newspapers.

Brazil and Russia see each other’s potential. And even Japan, South Korea and China, which have been mortal enemies off and on for a millennium, are now on each other’s “A list.” Make no mistake, we will continue to see an increase in bilateral and tri-lateral trade agreements, as reported a year ago in Soundings. Russia and Brazil think they can increase their trade from $5.9 billion to $10 billion in the near future. The three Asian powerhouses have seen their trade amongst themselves grow to a whopping $684 billion, a more than five-fold increase since 1999. I predict that by 2015, it will top $1 trillion. More than anything, that will put the kibosh on North Korea’s blustering. You don’t want to reach into China’s mouth and grab its bone, or Japan’s for that matter, with its ever-increasing naval strength.

Yo ho, Yo ho… Speaking of naval superiority, let us not forget that the sole reason the world enjoys free access to trade is because of the U.S. Navy. Think about it. With its highly sophisticated satellite network and firepower, there is not a container ship, fishing trawler or, for that matter, a sailboat that leaves any harbor anywhere in the world unless it’s okay with the U.S. Navy. True, for political reasons it may not always act, but it has the ability to do so. It can check or checkmate any vessel in the world, any time it so chooses. And because of that, we can enjoy coffee from Colombia, sell iPods in India and watch Sony flat screens in Sweden. If you diminish the reach or effectiveness of the U.S. Navy, global trade will grind to a halt in direct proportion to an increase in piracy.

One would think that adding a Ferrari to its fleet of police cruisers would be an upgrade. Not so in this tiny Arab nation that boasts the world’s tallest building. The Ferrari acquisition comes on the heels of a Lamborghini Aventador, which it acquired earlier in the year for $550,000. Welcome to the sequester, Dubai style. Let’s see: The U.S. has 200 times the oil reserves of Dubai, yet they’re buying Ferraris for their junior police cadets while we can’t even get tours of the White House anymore. What’s wrong with this picture?

We’ve all heard the song, “99 bottles of beer on the wall,” but how about “199 brands of beer”?

That’s the number of brands beer giant InBev has, and growing. Just how global has the beer market become in the U.S.? Consider that InBev (think Stella Artois plus 199 other brands) owns Anheuser-Busch and now wants to buy Mexican brewer Grupo Modelo (think Corona and Pacifico plus six other brands). If the deal goes through, that would give InBev a 46 percent share of the U.S. beer market. The Justice Department, however, has filed suit to halt the deal, saying it would allow InBev to corner the price of beer in the U.S. Really? Earth to Justice: Why not look into the legality of spending $1 trillion more than we take in, and how that has raised the debt owed by each American family to $128,000—up from $60,000 in 2008? Thanks for thinking about our beer consumption, but the government’s out of control spending has cost each household $68,000 over the past four years—and that buys a lot of six packs.

Betting long on Russia?

You may want to rethink that. Russia has a fundamental problem in that its birthrate is on the decline. Its current population of 145 million is projected to shrink to between 90 million to 125 million by 2050. It’s awfully hard to grow your economy when your workforce is shrinking, unless you switch to robotic manufacturing which thus far Russia has shied away from. Instead, they have gone to the other extreme and seem content to export raw materials. This doesn’t do much to lift the middle class and may not do much in the long term for your Russian exports, either.

I’ve never been to a Quiznos and, quite frankly, I think it was a strange name to have chosen.

But I’ll give them this: they know how to leverage their operation into global markets. The company just inked a deal with a Mexican partner to open 150 restaurants in Mexico over the next decade and has announced plans to open 1,000 international locations in 40 countries by 2020. Saying it is one thing, doing it is quite another. But, as our web editor Michael White points out, given their recent expansion into the Philippines, India and Latin America—particularly Brazil and Paraguay, where it opened the first of five new restaurants last September in the new Shopping Pinedo mall in Asuncion—I would say they are well on their way. It will be interesting to follow their success.

So President Obama wants to raise the minimum wage to $9?

Not really … that was just another political hand grenade he lobbed into the House. Surely he must know that raising the minimum wage at this juncture in our recovery would be a job killer. And, surely he knows that the House would never approve it. Nonetheless, he—and therefore the Dems—gets the credit for bringing it up which will help them in the next congressional elections, while the Republicans will once again have to step forward, become the “responsible parent” and take the blame for shelving it—killjoys that they are. Politically, this is a brilliant but self-serving move by the White House, because all this minimum-wage voter block will remember is that the Democrats wanted to raise the minimum wage and the Republicans killed it. But stop the presses: Let’s say the Republicans went along with it and let the Democrats take all the credit—and responsibility. Then, when unemployment stays high as a result, the Republicans could say “I told you so.” It just may be that the Republican Party needs to give the other side enough rope to hang itself if it ever wants to stage a political comeback.

Remember that scene in The Graduate?

The one where Mr. McGuire (Walter Brooke) pulls a young Benjamin (Dustin Hoffman) aside and says, “I’ve got one word for you. Plastics.” Fast forward to 2013 and the one word is now robotics. Whichever country takes the lead in robotic manufacturing will take the lead in global trade. Robotics will level the playing field for low-cost manufacturing and potentially make the U.S. as competitive as, say, Vietnam for export goods. Couple our lead in robotics with lower energy costs from increased domestic production and the U.S. could be poised for its greatest export boom ever.