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C.H. Robinson: Trends and Anticipated Disruptions for 2025 Shipping 

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Global Logistics, Global Trade Daily, News

C.H. Robinson: Trends and Anticipated Disruptions for 2025 Shipping 

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C.H. Robinson’s Mike Short, president of Global Forwarding, provides insights into the trends and potential risks that shippers need to understand when planning for 2025 amid an increasingly disrupted shipping environment. With over 27 years of experience in global logistics and leading C.H. Robinson’s global freight division, which handles ~6,000 air and ocean shipments daily, Mike has seen and experienced a lot in the world of logistics. Here are some of the key considerations that Mike believes shippers need to pay attention to as the new year unfolds:

Read also: Supply Chain 2025 Predictions

As we approach 2025, the global supply chain landscape faces significant transformations. Global shippers are dealing with challenges like changing ocean carrier alliances, new government administrations, possible port strikes, and geopolitical conflicts. These events have already strained supply chains, and the situation is expected to intensify as we enter the first quarter.

The most important factor in navigating ongoing disruptions and building resiliency into supply chains at a time when they are growing increasingly complex globally, is to anticipate what is to come.

1. Global trade changes

Tariffs are top of mind for many as 2024 brought many trade and tariff changes and we expect more in the coming months. This includes, for example, the recent 35.5% tariff on imported electric vehicles from China by the European Union. Since over half the world went to the polls this year, it’s likely more global trade changes are on the horizon with new incoming leadership. For example, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump indicated that he plans to use tariffs during his presidency. And other country leaders have responded, which could start a cascade of trade changes across the globe, and therefore supply chain shifts.

Many shippers began diversifying several years ago after the pandemic highlighted the need for greater supply chain agility and are not starting at square one. In fact, looking specifically at the trans-Pacific lane, we’ve seen Chinese imported goods from the U.S. decrease 8 percent from 2017 to 2023. During that same time, other countries in Southeast Asia, Mexico, Canada, India, and even some Europe countries have increased almost equally across the board. It’s clear that shippers have already been shifting their supply chains to optimize their resilience and we expect that trend to continue.

Beyond near/re-shoring or decoupling from China, shippers are also looking for diversification across modes, such as ocean to air, full-container-load (FCL) to less-than-container-load (LCL), and even shifts in inland strategies. During the recent U.S. port strike, we helped many shippers execute different inland strategies, such as transloading, to make up for any time lost while their freight was stuck at the port.

2. Shifts in ocean carrier strategies

New ocean carrier alliances, which control 60% of the global container market, are bound to present a level of market disruption as we’ve seen during past alliance shifts. For example, while Gemini Cooperation’s strategy aims to reduce the number of port callings between Asia and North Europe by half – therefore shortening transit time by several days – smaller ports may be eliminated entirely from the route. This shift would not only impact ocean freight schedules, but will likely also shift how freight flows inland. The trans-Atlantic trade will also experience change with the Ocean and Premier Alliances forming a cooperation, which removes capacity between North America and Europe.

Another example is the new Port of Chancay in Peru, which aims to reduce shipping times between LATAM and Asia 10+ days by bypassing traditional routes through the U.S. Even if you’re not shipping between Asia and Peru, it is important to know that this new route not only bypasses a major consumer country, but could also consequently shifts rates and available capacity in other lanes.

3. Labor strikes

Many countries, including Canada, United States, Brazil, Australia, Italy, and India, have experienced port, rail and/or customs strikes this year. The jump in labor strikes started most notably in 2023, with a 280% year-over-year increase in activity. The trend continued in 2024 and isn’t expected to slow down. C.H. Robinson is already helping shippers prepare for a potential second U.S. port strike in January. Industries like automotive and pharmaceuticals are especially eager to create contingency plans since even a two-day strike could significantly disrupt operations due to their just-in-time inventory model.

4. Front-loading

Potential strikes, pending tariffs, and the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday have prompted shippers to front-load freight. While front-loading has typically been done via ocean, we are already seeing some priority freight shift to air in anticipation of a potential second U.S. port strike.

This behavior isn’t new — back in 2018, some shippers increased production and stockpiled freight before the U.S. Section 301 tariffs went into effect. The difference today is that front-loading is a common approach across a range of shippers. We will be watching how this enhanced focus on front-loading heading into 2025 may impact freight patterns as the year progresses.

 5. Ecommerce boom

The ongoing shift of air capacity to support ecommerce activity exiting Asia continues to impact other lanes. Recently, rates spiked on the trans-Atlantic route due to aircraft being reassigned to the trans-Pacific for ecommerce shipments. This shift in capacity has led to increased rates and reduced capacity on smaller volume lanes, a trend expected to persist as ecommerce demand from Asia remains strong.

 This industry will be one to watch as it continues to exert a significant influence on global air freight supply and demand. And as air forecasting becomes more difficult, it’s key to add flexibility into your strategy and evaluate what freight is urgent and needs to ship via air to not only mitigate risk but also capitalize on cost savings.

6. Geopolitical events

Geopolitical conflicts around the globe continue to impact supply chains. Due to the war in Ukraine, the airspace over the region remains closed, and airlines have avoided Russian airspace, forcing carriers to take longer routes over the Middle East. Now, with increasing tensions in the Middle East, including the Palestine-Israel conflict and political changes in Syria, it is likely other routes will need to be adjusted. Additionally, the diversions from the Red Sea and Suez Canal, which began in October 2023, continue to significantly reduce space capacity, disrupt schedule reliability, and contribute to global port congestion.

Going Forward 

Going into 2025, diversification for supply chain agility remains crucial as it allows adaptability during the changing market conditions that the topics I mentioned can bring. Shippers have made significant progress in this area over the past few years, but there’s still much work to be done. Being an asset-light company, we have the ability to help our customers build more agility and flexibility across their supply chain because they’re not tied to one trade lane, region, or mode. This is critical so as disruptions clog up one area of the supply chain, we’re able to strategize and shift our customers’ freight to keep it moving despite the challenges.

  These trends are just a few that will shape the 2025 global supply chain. Sustainability, GenAI, and more will also have an impact. Keep in mind, every topic I mentioned has a ripple effect across the supply chain. A disruption at sea or a port strike can cascade down to significantly impact trucking and rail– to name just a couple examples.

  A healthy and responsible supply chain starts with understanding its interconnectedness. It is possible to see the full picture – and is something our teams do every day. In the new year, initiate conversations on these topics and ask questions about the tailwind effect. This will help you anticipate potential challenges and opportunities and determine the best strategy to protect your supply chain and your business objectives.

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Archives, Global Logistics, Global Trade Daily, Ocean Carriers

HOW TO PREPARE FOR THIS YEAR’S CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

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Twenty twenty-one was a difficult year in global logistics due to ongoing volatility. We worked alongside customers navigating the Suez Canal block, hurricanes and cyclones, port and terminal closures due to COVID-19 outbreaks, customs and trade changes, labor shortages and more.

I’ve been in the industry since 1997 and I have never seen this level of continual disruption across the entire supply chain for this length of time. However, with this year’s volatility, I was also given a front-row seat to a new level of hyper collaboration–including individuals going out of their way to help each other, more strategy sessions between shippers and forwarders, and continually leaning into historical data and current market insights find smarter solutions.

As we begin another potentially volatile year, I wanted to provide key strategies for global shippers to consider.

SEEK CREATIVE SOLUTIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE SUPPLY CHAIN

At year-end, we typically see a jump in demand as shippers meet quarter-end quotas and prepare for the upcoming Lunar New Year, during which many factories in China shut down. However, in early 2022, shippers are also juggling potential delays from the Winter Olympics in Beijing throughout February. All of this is amid a strained supply chain market, which will take time to ease.

As you prepare for the year ahead, consider what different modes, trade lanes or inland transportation strategies you can implement in your supply chain. For example, while it may not be feasible to transport 100% of your freight via air, air freight continues to be the fastest way to replenish inventory, so prioritizing specific freight can help keep cargo moving. In fact, C.H. Robinson is running on average 15-17 air charters a week globally for customers looking to avoid the congested ocean ports, and we don’t expect that number to decrease in the near future.

Additionally, as demand and rates will likely continue to stay elevated, less-than-container load (LCL) shipping is a strategy to consider. Typically, space for LCL shipments is easier to find especially in a constrained capacity market, since you are only looking for some container space versus an entire empty container. We also continue to see large cost savings with expedited LCL services compared to today’s airfreight environment.

Keep in mind, LCL shipments are not going to bypass congestion at the ports, so inland strategies need to be considered. Currently, many ocean carriers are looking to move more interior point intermodal cargo versus focusing on port-to-port. We were able to help increase the flow of cargo inland for our customers by sending more 53-foot containers so cargo on the smaller 40-foot ocean containers can be efficiently consolidated in the larger ones and loaded onto trucks or trains to be taken to inland destinations more quickly. Overall, this increased our container capacity by 25% in Southern California.

Indeed, looking at only one portion of the supply chain or one mode can only get you so far. It’s important to consider all areas to keep your cargo moving.

UTILIZE DATA AND TECHNOLOGY

Although 2021 rendered a lot of unique situations—and 2022 may do the same—historical data can still help us find solutions. Finding common trends and themes in your cyclical data can give you an information advantage to make smarter decisions for your supply chain.

Additionally, the right technology tools can give you the visibility and predictability you need to adjust. For example, with the ongoing port congestion and delays, C.H. Robinson enhanced the vessel routing and tracking features within our transportation management system, Navisphere, to increase the efficiency and accuracy of port ETAs and automatically send updates if changes were discovered. This is important because ocean shipping is only one piece of the equation. Having visibility to changes in real-time gives our team and customers a chance to react and adjust other tactics down the road.

LOOK TO GLOBAL TRADE OPPORTUNITIES

It’s unclear whether we’ll see a reinstatement of certain Section 301 China duty exclusions. At press time, the House and Senate had yet to reach consensus on the legislative proposals. If passed, it would be effective through the end of this year.

While congestion and shortages continue across transportation modes, one area where you may find opportunities for savings is in your global trade strategy. Since each country’s trade policies are unique and can change, it’s important to have regular meetings with your trade advisor to break through the complexity of your total landed costs, including understanding your costs to import, identifying duty recovery possibilities and reducing your duty exposure via trade agreements.

For example, our team has helped shippers identify thousands to millions of dollars in tariff refunds alone. If you import into the U.S., you can easily check for potential savings and refunds with our online Tariff Search Tool—www.chrobinson.com/en-us/resources/insights-and-advisories/trade-tariff-insights/hts-search/—and, if you’re sourcing from other countries, our team can create a customized sourcing report sharing potential cost savings or avoidance opportunities.

OCEAN FREIGHT UPDATE: GLOBAL

Forecasting remains essential. For this new year, we strongly encourage forecasting six to eight weeks minimum as a best practice. Considerations for staying consistent include:

-Prioritization

-Variability in SKUs/parts

-Smoothing volumes week-to-week

It’s important to be flexible in all facets of a shipment life cycle including:

-Carriers

-Equipment

-Modes

-Routing

OCEAN FREIGHT UPDATE: NORTH AMERICA

-Port congestion continues to strand vessels and equipment. In Los Angeles/Long Beach (LALB) there are more than 90 vessels with an average 18-30-day dwell. Seattle and Tacoma are experiencing an average of 12 days to berth, while Savannah still has more than 20 vessels waiting at anchor.

-South East Asia transshipment hub ports are also impacted, causing heavy delays on non-direct services via Asia.

-Overall capacity is affected by ongoing port congestion in many trade lanes. Vessels are oftentimes delayed back to their origin, missing scheduled port calls to unload empty equipment, and pick up new laden exports to the United States.

-Schedule reliability and operational constraints are forecasted to continue.

OCEAN FREIGHT UPDATE: OCEANIA

-The supply chain in Oceania continues to be negatively impacted by the global supply chain disruption. Terminal congestion and suspension of pro forma berthing windows are having an impact on shipping schedules.

-Our teams are exploring diverse options in moving longstanding containers to help customers mitigate significant delays.

-The impact of port delays around the world is likely to keep freight costs high on all outbound trades.

FINAL THOUGHTS

While there is no one-size-fits-all approach, the above options provide shippers with strategies to help mitigate delays and identify potential savings as we begin another potentially unpredictable year.

Shippers have had to become increasingly nimble and informed over the past year, and now in 2022, it’s critical to remain agile, be open to alternative solutions and stay informed on the latest market insights. 

________________________________________________________________

Mike Short is president of global forwarding at C.H. Robinson. The Eden Prairie, Minnesota-based company solves logistics problems for companies across the globe and across industries, from the simple to the most complex. With nearly $20 billion in freight under management and 18 million shipments annually, C.H. Robinson is one of the world’s largest logistics platforms. Their global suite of services accelerates trade to seamlessly deliver the products and goods that drive the world’s economy. With the combination of our multimodal transportation management system and expertise, they parlay an information advantage to deliver smarter solutions for more than 119,000 customers and 78,000 contract carriers. Learn more at www.chrobinson.com. 

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3pls, Archives, Global Logistics, Global Trade Daily, Ocean Carriers

How to Prepare for Global Logistics in 2022

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2021 was a difficult year in global logistics due to ongoing volatility. We worked alongside customers navigating the Suez Canal block, hurricanes and cyclones, port and terminal closures due to COVID-19 outbreaks, customs and trade changes, labor shortages and more.

I’ve been in the industry since 1997 and I have never seen this level of continual disruption across the entire supply chain for this length of time. However, with this year’s volatility, I was also given a front-row seat to a new level of hyper collaboration –  including individuals going out of their way to help each other, more strategy sessions between shippers and forwarders, and continually leaning into historical data and current market insights to find smarter solutions.

As we approach another potentially volatile year, I wanted to provide key strategies for global shippers to consider.

Seek creative solutions across the entire supply chain

At year-end, we typically see a jump in demand as shippers meet quarter-end quotas and prepare for the upcoming Lunar New Year, during which many factories in China shut down. However, in early 2022, shippers will also be juggling potential delays from the Winter Olympics which will be hosted in Beijing throughout February. All of this is amid a strained supply chain market, which will take time to ease.

As you prepare for 2022, consider what different modes, trade lanes, or inland transportation strategies you can implement in your supply chain. For example, while it may not be feasible to transport 100% of your freight via air, air freight continues to be the fastest way to replenish inventory, so prioritizing specific freight can help keep cargo moving. In fact, C.H. Robinson is running on average 15-17 air charters a week globally for customers looking to avoid the congested ocean ports, and we don’t expect that number to decrease at the start of the new year.

Additionally, as demand and rates will likely continue to stay elevated through the beginning of next year, less-than-container load (LCL) shipping is a strategy to consider. Typically, space for LCL shipments is easier to find especially in a constrained capacity market, since you are only looking for some container space versus an entire empty container. We also continue to see large cost savings with expedited LCL services compared to today’s airfreight environment.

Keep in mind, LCL shipments are not going to bypass congestion at the ports, so inland strategies need to be considered. Currently, many ocean carriers are looking to move more IPI (interior point intermodal) cargo versus focusing on port-to-port. We were able to help increase the flow of cargo inland for our customers by sending more 53-foot containers so cargo on the smaller 40-foot ocean containers can be efficiently consolidated in the larger ones and loaded onto trucks or trains to be taken to inland destinations more quickly. Overall, this increased our container capacity by 25% in Southern California.

As you can see, looking at only one portion of the supply chain or one mode can only get you so far. It’s important to consider all areas to keep your cargo moving.

Utilize data and technology

Although this past year has rendered a lot of unique situations and 2022 may do the same, historical data can still help us find solutions. Finding common trends and themes in your cyclical data can give you an information advantage to make smarter decisions for your supply chain.

Additionally, the right technology tools can give you the visibility and predictability you need to adjust. For example, with the ongoing port congestion and delays, C.H. Robinson enhanced the vessel routing and tracking features within our transportation management system, Navisphere®, to increase the efficiency and accuracy of port ETAs and automatically send updates if changes were discovered. This is important because ocean shipping is only one piece of the equation. Having visibility to changes in real-time gives our team and customers a chance to react and adjust other tactics down the road.

Look to global trade opportunities

While congestion and shortages continue across transportation modes, one area where you may find opportunities for savings is in your global trade strategy. Since each country’s trade policies are unique and can change, it’s important to have regular meetings with your trade advisor to break through the complexity of your total landed costs, including understanding your costs to import, identifying duty recovery possibilities, and reducing your duty exposure via trade agreements.

For example, our team has helped shippers identify thousands to millions of dollars in tariff refunds alone. If you import into the U.S., you can easily check for potential savings and refunds with our online Tariff Search Tool. And, if you’re sourcing from other countries, our team can create a customized sourcing report sharing potential cost savings or avoidance opportunities.

Final Thoughts

While there is no one-size-fits-all approach, the above options provide shippers with strategies to help mitigate delays and identify potential savings as we enter another potentially unpredictable year.

Shippers have had to become increasingly nimble and informed over the past year, and going into 2022 it’s critical to remain agile, be open to alternative solutions, and stay informed on the latest market insights.

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Archives, Global Trade Daily, International Trade

How Your Business can Take Advantage of Section 301 Tariff Refunds

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If you’re a U.S. company importing from China, you may have tens of thousands or even millions in tariff refunds waiting for you. With two-thirds of Chinese origin goods subject to Section 301 tariffs, companies large and small have been impacted since they were implemented in 2018 amid a U.S.-China trade war. Currently, 301 tariffs are extremely broad, covering industries from food and beverage, industrial supplies, transport equipment, consumption goods, and fuels and lubricants, to name a few. And now is your chance to get a refund on some of those extra duty payments via 301 exclusions before a vast majority of them expire on Dec. 31. These exclusions offer just the kind of cost-savings so many companies are looking for as we face a volatile economy and pandemic.

Taking advantage of duty recovery

If you’re not familiar, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) implemented the exclusion process for 301 tariffs when they were first enacted in 2018. This opportunity provided businesses the chance to request an exclusion and/or submit for duty recovery on exclusions that were already available.

Looking across our own customers, we identified a potential duty recovery refund of roughly $980 million. However, we found the timeliness and complexities of navigating the amount of exclusions can be overwhelming for small and large companies alike. And we get it, without the right data, technology, and expertise the process to compare your HTS codes against hundreds of exclusions can take hours, and that’s without considering that over 96% are product-specific which requires an even deeper level of analysis. With C.H. Robinson’s technology built by and for supply chains and a global suite of services, we’re able to decrease the amount of time needed in the complex and lengthy refund recovery process. Through our global trade experts and single, multimodal, global technology platform Navisphere®, we utilize data comparison and analysis tools to quickly reveal your refund potential.

We have already helped hundreds of companies take advantage of the refunds for which they qualify. One of the companies we assisted was Wheel Pros, a large wheel design, and distribution company, in submitting for a substantial refund. Keep in mind, large refunds are not only for large companies, our global trade experts have helped multiple small and mid-sized businesses uncover and submit for large refunds.

Keeping up with global trade changes

While the majority of current exclusions are set to expire on Dec. 31, we’ve been around long enough to know the only constant in global trade is change. So, we also created a Trade & Tariffs Insights webpage to help you keep up with it. It’s like having your very own global trade concierge service with weekly updates on the changing global trade marketplace along with custom insights and commentary from our leading global trade experts to help you make sense of it all. Trade and Tariff Insights cover topics like tariffs, exclusions and any other trade or compliance issues you need to know about. That way, you can focus on operating your business.

To learn more, visit Trade & Tariffs Insights. You can also reach out to one of our trade experts to explore your refund potential for 301 tariffs before time runs out.

PPE
Archives, Global Shippers 101, Global Trade Daily

From Exports to Delivery: Simplifying PPE Shipping

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From small businesses to large corporations, many are navigating the complex world of importing personal protective equipment (PPE) for employees, family members, and customers as businesses reopen across the globe.

Whether you have navigated these waters before or are new to importing PPE, COVID-19 has changed the game. In response to the changing environment, our team of experts at C.H. Robinson put together information on four key subjects that will help your PPE supply chain run smoother during a time when simplicity is what you need most.

Exporting PPE from China

Over the past several months, China has been the main source for PPE. So, it’s important you’re up to date on the latest regulations to avoid your freight being held up.

China has recently implemented three key policies that relate to PPE exporting.

-Policy 5 requires all medical supplies to meet quality standards of the importing countries, this policy also separated out the process for medical-grade and non-medical-use devices.

-Policy 53 increases CIQ inspection on all PPE products, labels, packaging, and documentation.

-Policy 12 created a white and blacklist of manufacturers and suppliers.

While China’s new policies offer tighter control on PPE being exported, they also have created a dedicated HS-code for PPE products to simplify export declarations.

For a closer look at how China’s regulations impact PPE shipping, check out our recent PPE exporting video featuring our director of product development, Vincent Wong.

U.S. and Canada customs best practices

The next key subject to address is importing PPE into the United States and/or Canada. It’s important you understand various government agency requirements and determine which ones apply depending on whether the PPE is for general or medical use. From there, other factors like labeling, packaging, and marketing of the product can influence these regulations as well.

Importing PPE into the United States

Depending on the PPE commodity you are importing, there can be multiple U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) requirements to navigate. And due to the nature of the shipping industry, these regulations can change quickly—especially for medical grade equipment.

Importing PPE into Canada

While importing into Canada has some similarities—like changing regulations—there are some clear differences to be aware of as well. It’s important to note that while intended use, labeling, packaging, and advertising can be used to determine medical vs. general use in Canada, this is ultimately determined by the Canadian inspectors.

Whether you are importing PPE into the U.S. or Canada, make certain to watch our video on customs best practices with Ben Bidwell, director of North America customs and compliance, in order to better understand requirements, expectations and regulations for PPE.

Metered freight solutions

In this environment, we’re seeing companies turn to air freight to move their personal protective equipment quickly. However, when the demand for passenger travel plummeted in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, a dramatic reduction in cargo capacity followed. As you might imagine, this has drastically changed normal market conditions for air shipping.

While delivering all your PPE as fast as possible via air might seem like your only option, solutions like freight metering, which utilizes both air and ocean, can also meet your needs while providing cost-savings.

Ask yourself:

-How much of our PPE do we really need to fly?

-How much of that is safety stock?

-What’s the end user consumption rate?

-What’s the output rate at the factory?

Answers to these questions and cross-functional conversations that include purchasers, factory contacts, logistics providers, and end users can reveal that only a portion of your purchase order (PO) should fly and a balance of it should ship as ocean freight.

The key to metering your freight is to choose air freight for just enough of your order to match your end-users’ consumption rate. As ocean freight catches up, it can significantly reduce your freight spend.

Looking for more benefits of a metered air and ocean shipping solution for critical PPE orders? Watch our metered freight solutions video, featuring Bogen Chi, director of air freight.

FCL and LCL expedited ocean shipping

Lastly, we understand your need to continue moving your PPE cargo as quickly and cost-effectively as possible. Utilizing expedited less than container load (LCL) or full container load (FCL) shipping could be the differentiator you need. In fact, depending on your PPE’s delivery city, C.H. Robinson’s expedited LCL services can cut traditional LCL transit time by 4 to 14 days and keep your costs nearly 80% lower than air freight services.

Watch our expedited ocean shipping video with Ali Ashraf and Greg Scott to explore if this smart transportation solution is right for your supply chain.

In conclusion

Personal protective equipment has become an extremely important and in-demand commodity as we face COVID-19. So, whether you’re looking to import PPE for the first time or as part of your normal procurement process, C.H. Robinson’s experts can help you build a more resilient supply chain when shipping PPE around the globe. As the market continues to change, our global suite of service offerings and market expertise remains available to help your PPE supply chain. We’re here to help today so you can have a better PPE process tomorrow.