The United States’ president-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on Chinese products are expected to accelerate the growth of containerized imports from Vietnam, Thailand, and South Korea. These countries, already benefiting from shifting supply chains since 2017, are poised for further gains as businesses diversify away from China.

Read also: Global Leaders Warn of Economic Fallout From Proposed Trump Tariffs

Vietnam: A Rising Export Powerhouse

According to a Linerlytica report, Vietnam’s container exports to the US surpassed 2 million TEUs in the first 10 months of 2024—more than double the 2017 volume. World Customs Organization figures reveal a 41% year-on-year increase in Q2 2024, reflecting the continued relocation of manufacturing to Vietnam.

Factors driving this growth include Vietnam’s well-educated workforce, competitive operating costs, and improving diplomatic ties with the US. These advantages have made Vietnam a key player in the shifting global trade dynamic.

Thailand: Strong Growth in Agricultural Exports

Thailand has also seen remarkable growth, with exports to the US tripling since 2017. The country shipped approximately 900,000 TEUs to the US in the first 10 months of 2024, fueled largely by agricultural and food products. October alone saw a 25% year-on-year increase.

Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, head of Thailand’s Trade Policy and Strategy Office, expressed confidence in the resilience of Thai exports despite Mr. Trump’s threats of tariffs targeting major US trading partners like Canada, Mexico, and China. He highlighted that US companies with operations in Thailand benefit directly from these trade flows.

South Korea: Tech-Driven Export Growth

South Korea has likewise capitalized on the shifting trade dynamics, exporting over 1 million TEUs to the US between January and October 2024, compared with around 600,000 TEUs in 2017. Key growth sectors include electrical appliances, equipment, and machinery, according to Linerlytica analyst Tan Hua Joo.

 China’s Diminishing Dominance

China remains the largest source of US imports from Asia, but its share has dropped from 70.4% in 2017 to 58.9% in 2024. Meanwhile, Vietnam, South Korea, and Thailand are rapidly expanding their market share. However, concerns linger over Chinese manufacturers using Vietnam as a transshipment point to evade US tariffs. In response, the US previously considered tariffs on Vietnamese goods, prompting Vietnam to balance its trade surplus by increasing imports of US soybeans and aircraft.

Limited Impact of Tariff Hikes on Maritime Traffic

Linerlytica’s report suggests that the incoming administration’s planned tariff hikes will primarily target Mexico and Canada, with limited immediate effects on maritime trade. The proposed 10% tariff on Chinese goods is far lower than the initially suggested 60%, reducing the likelihood of sweeping tariffs on all US imports.

These developments could further enhance the prospects of exporters in Vietnam, South Korea, and Thailand, which have already enjoyed significant growth over the past six years. As trade patterns continue to evolve, these nations are positioned to play an increasingly prominent role in global commerce.