Container rates on key Asia-to-U.S. shipping routes are declining after a July surge driven by importers rushing to beat anticipated tariff increases. According to a report from FreightWaves, another 90-day extension of the tariff truce between China and the United States into November is unlikely to stimulate a new wave of imports.

Read also: Asia-Europe Freight Rate Surge Stalls Amid Port Congestion and Mixed Market Signals

The initial surge in arrivals likely peaked in July as shippers frontloaded cargo ahead of an early August deadline. Since that rush, Asia-North America spot rates have fallen 60%-70% in an almost uninterrupted slide. Data from the IndexBox platform confirms this downward trend, with rates to the West Coast decreasing 10% last week to $1,744 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU), their lowest level since December 2023. East Coast prices fell 21% to $2,733 per FEU, marking a 34% decline so far in August.

Implementation lags are a key factor, as tariffs meant to be reduced are still being collected while deal details are finalized. This delay means any potential impact on freight volumes and rates will take longer to materialize. Meanwhile, growing vessel capacity and carrier decisions to reroute ships are putting additional downward pressure on pricing. The Premier Alliance, for instance, is splitting its Mediterranean Pacific South 2 service, a move that will take as many as 10 Chinese-built ships out of U.S. service to avoid new punitive port fees set to take effect in October.

In contrast, trans-Atlantic rates held essentially steady at $2,284 per FEU last week. On other major trade lanes, Asia-North Europe spot prices fell 6% to approximately $3,100 per FEU, while Asia-Mediterranean rates were 1% lower at the same price point. These levels are about 60% lower than the same period last year, reflecting the growing overcapacity in the global container market.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform