A cooling global economy is expected to temper air cargo market growth over the next six months even as rates continue to climb, according to the Xenetas Air Freight Outlook Update published in July. The report, cited by Supply Chain Dive, outlines three key factors shaping the sector in the second half of 2026.

Read also: Global Air Cargo Demand Rises 8.5% in June 2026, IATA Reports

Global demand and capacity poised to slow

Global air cargo demand rose 4% year over year at the end of June, exceeding earlier forecasts of 2% to 3% growth. However, Xeneta now expects full-year demand growth to land at the higher end of its original projection, while capacity growth is anticipated at the lower end of the 2% to 3% range. This suggests demand may keep pace with or surpass capacity.

Regional data from the International Air Transport Association shows Asia-Pacific carriers recorded a 4.3% year-over-year capacity increase in June, with demand up 7.9%. North American carriers saw capacity rise 6.2% and demand climb 13.1% during the same period.

Aircraft manufacturers Boeing and Airbus have not fully recovered their supply chains since the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Tom Crabtree, managing director at Transport Research Advisory. In the first six months of the year, the two companies produced about 75 widebody passenger aircraft combined, only six more than in the same period of 2025. Widebody planes move roughly 40% of air cargo, and insufficient production could force the global freighter fleet to operate beyond normal capacity. Crabtree indicated that shippers should not expect significant price reductions in air freight services in the near term.

Shipper rates set to rise

Xeneta initially forecast air cargo rates to drop by up to 10% at the start of the year, but now expects rates to increase 5% to 15% year over year. The Iran war has created network and fuel volatility, disrupted long-term contracting, and pushed forwarders to secure space on the spot market. In the second quarter, forwarders procured nearly 50% of air freight volumes on the spot market.

The share of newly agreed shipper-forwarder contracts valid for up to three months rose to 58%, up from 22% a year earlier. Many companies are delaying negotiations on 2026 contracts until conditions stabilize.

Since the end of February, air freight rates have risen due to fluctuating jet fuel prices and high demand. At one point, prices were up 38% year over year, though they have eased since the beginning of July. Crabtree noted that these swings are difficult for shippers to manage. Xeneta observed that spot rates appear to be trending downward after a late-May mini peak season, and a cooldown of hostilities in Iran could support further declines. As the conflict eases, capacity around Gulf air cargo hubs would recover and jet fuel prices would fall, pointing to additional spot rate reductions.

AI remains air cargos strongest growth engine

Artificial intelligence hardware and semiconductor demand have shown exceptional growth for the air cargo sector, becoming the clearest driver of Transpacific strength, according to Xeneta. High-value, time-sensitive shipments in these categories are expected to remain the largest growth engine beyond 2026.

DHL Global Forwarding recently launched a thrice-weekly widebody Transpacific service between Bangkok and Cincinnati, citing the technology sector as the main reason for the added capacity. In April, World Semiconductor Trade Statistics reported global semiconductor sales up nearly 94% year over year.

Taiwan, a major chip manufacturing hub, saw GDP growth of about 15% in the first quarter of 2026, with export value forecast to grow by nearly 20% for the year. AI-related cargo accounts for less than 10% of total volumes, meaning its impact is concentrated on select corridors rather than global headline figures. In June, air cargo demand received a 7% year-over-year boost from AI-related shipments, which offset weakened China-U.S. e-commerce traffic caused by U.S. tariffs. That e-commerce flow had been the main demand engine for the past two to three years.

Xeneta warned that while AI investments show little sign of fading, a burst in the AI investment bubble would have systemic ripple effects across the air cargo market.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform