The air cargo industry has reacted with cautious optimism to the tentative peace framework between the United States and Iran, according to a report from Air Cargo News. Forwarders have welcomed the development, though they acknowledge that a full return to pre-conflict operations and fuel costs may not happen quickly.

Read also: IATA Cuts 2026 Air Cargo Growth Forecast Amid Middle East Disruptions

The framework agreement is scheduled to be signed in Geneva on Friday. It is expected to lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil transport that has been closed since hostilities began in February. The closure had driven jet fuel prices sharply higher, and the fighting caused supply chains to move away from the Middle East, although some operations had already resumed after airspace was reopened.

Data from Rotate indicates that airfreight capacity between the Middle East and Europe was down approximately 20 percent last week compared to the same period a year earlier. Capacity from Asia to the Middle East showed a 4 percent decline year-over-year. Elevated fuel prices have also contributed to increased pressure on consumer spending and a rising cost of living.

The US Airforwarders Association (AfA) responded to the news by cautiously welcoming the reported peace framework. The group stated that the agreement could help ease pressure on consumers and businesses in the United States, as well as on the broader global economy. However, the AfA warned that many details could still change before Friday. The association emphasized that the airfreight industry now needs clarity on how the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened and how free passage will be enforced.

The AfA noted that freight forwarders and the wider air cargo sector have worked diligently to maintain supply chain resilience, keep time-sensitive goods moving, and adapt to rapidly changing operating conditions. The group commented that recent events have demonstrated that air cargo is not merely a commercial service but an essential component of economic stability, emergency response, and national resilience. US forwarders have faced ongoing disruption and uncertainty from government shutdowns, tariffs, and conflict in the Middle East. The association called for certainty, stability, and a return to predictable trade policy so that businesses can plan, invest, and move goods with confidence.

Current US President Donald Trump has claimed on social media that oil tankers are already beginning to move out of the Strait of Hormuz. However, reports indicate that shipping companies are likely to wait for the deal to be signed and for mines to be cleared before resuming large-scale operations.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform