According to data provider Xeneta, the air cargo market closed 2025 with a 6% year-on-year increase in demand for December and an overall annual growth of 4%. Capacity rose 5% in December, and the dynamic load factor improved by one percentage point to 63%.

Read also: Air Cargo Spot Prices Rise 3% in Early December 2025 as Volumes Increase

Despite the demand increase, the average airfreight spot rate for December declined 4% compared to December 2024, reaching $2.83 per kg. The steepest declines were seen on the westbound transatlantic trade, which fell 13%, from Southeast Asia to Europe, down 11%, and from Southeast Asia to North America, down 6%.

Xeneta stated that the demand performance reflected shippers’ willingness to shift to the speed and reliability of air cargo during times of disruption and economic uncertainty, a situation influenced by US tariffs.

Analysts Forecast Slower Growth and Lower Rates for 2026

For the coming year, Xeneta expects volume growth to moderate to an increase of 2-3%. “With many questions remaining over trade, and geopolitical tension adding a further layer of uncertainty, I personally think something has to give in 2026 from a volume perspective – and that means theres going to be more in it for shippers in terms of lower rates,” said Xeneta chief airfreight officer, Niall van de Wouw.

Xeneta said that what happens next will be “heavily influenced by e-commerce”. “One of the tailwinds for air cargo demand growth in 2025 came from investment linked to the development of artificial intelligence solutions,” van de Wouw said. “This supported flows of high-value goods and is expected to continue. In contrast, the less buoyant forward-looking signals for e-commerce, particularly Chinese cross-border e-commerce exports, are worrying.”

Chinese customs data shows low-value and e-commerce exports in November rose by just 1% year on year, after flatlining in October. “Exports to the US represented the brunt of this decline, plunging 52% year on year in November after a corresponding 51% fall in October, the steepest declines on record,” Xeneta said.

New Regulations and Consumer Spending Pose Risks

E-commerce platforms are facing increased tax reporting requirements in China with costly fines for missed deadlines. Meanwhile, the European Union in December agreed to introduce a EUR3 customs duty per item on e-commerce parcels valued below EUR150 from July 2026.

Countries including Japan and Thailand have also discussed or announced new rules commencing in fiscal 2026. Consequently, e-commerce volumes are likely to grow at a slower pace in 2026, said Xeneta, but still faster than the general airfreight market. “Air cargos e-commerce volumes are also likely to be impacted by declining consumer purchasing power as they face higher prices for more essential everyday items, making consumers more mindful of how they spend their money,” van de Wouw said.

“When I look at the biggest risks this year, right now I would say its more likely we will see something that will put a stopper on the level of airfreight growth we have seen in the last two years,” van de Wouw added. “Overall, the market has been relatively stable, but we are entering a phase when shippers will be looking for better rates and demand may deteriorate in the first quarter of the year.”

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform