IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. Wet Corn Market. Analysis And Forecast to 2025’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the wet corn market in the U.S. amounted to $8.7B in 2018, dropping by -8.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, wet corn consumption continues to indicate a drastic deduction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 with a decrease of -1.8% against the previous year. Wet corn consumption peaked at $15.3B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Wet Corn Production in the U.S.

In value terms, wet corn production stood at $9.6B in 2018. In general, wet corn production continues to indicate an abrupt shrinkage. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when production volume decreased by -1.1% year-to-year. Wet corn production peaked at $16.7B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, production remained at a lower figure.

Exports from the U.S.

In 2018, the amount of wet corn exported from the U.S. stood at 2.1M tonnes, falling by -15.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, wet corn exports continue to indicate a perceptible decline. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when exports increased by 5.2% year-to-year. Over the period under review, wet corn exports reached their peak figure at 2.6M tonnes in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, wet corn exports stood at $922M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. In general, wet corn exports continue to indicate a deep shrinkage. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 1.8% y-o-y. Over the period under review, wet corn exports attained their peak figure at $1.6B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports by Country

Ireland (493K tonnes), Israel (265K tonnes) and Colombia (147K tonnes) were the main destinations of wet corn exports from the U.S., with a combined 43% share of total exports. Chile, Egypt, the UK, Indonesia, Turkey, Morocco, New Zealand, Portugal and China lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 39%.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main countries of destination, was attained by New Zealand (+86.2% per year), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Chile ($96M), Ireland ($92M) and Colombia ($78M) were the largest markets for wet corn exported from the U.S. worldwide, together accounting for 29% of total exports. Egypt, Indonesia, China, Israel, the UK, New Zealand, Turkey, Morocco and Portugal lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 34%.

New Zealand recorded the highest growth rate of exports, among the main countries of destination over the last five-year period, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The average wet corn export price stood at $435 per tonne in 2018, going down by -11.2% against the previous year. In general, the wet corn export price continues to indicate a deep descent. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 when the average export price increased by 1.7% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the average export prices for wet corn attained their peak figure at $629 per tonne in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was China ($1,055 per tonne), while the average price for exports to Portugal ($153 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to China, while the prices for the other major destinations experienced a decline.

Imports into the U.S.

In 2018, approx. 467K tonnes of wet corn were imported into the U.S.; increasing by 5.5% against the previous year. Overall, the total imports indicated a strong expansion from 2013 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +9.5% over the last five years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, wet corn imports increased by +57.5% against 2013 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 16% year-to-year. Imports peaked in 2018 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, wet corn imports totaled $506M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +7.7% over the period from 2013 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when imports increased by 12% y-o-y. In that year, wet corn imports reached their peak and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

Imports by Country

Thailand (128K tonnes), Germany (70K tonnes) and the Netherlands (41K tonnes) were the main suppliers of wet corn imports to the U.S., with a combined 51% share of total imports. These countries were followed by Pakistan, Denmark, France, China, Belgium, Taiwan, Chinese, Poland, Viet Nam and Brazil, which together accounted for a further 34%.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main suppliers, was attained by Viet Nam, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest wet corn suppliers to the U.S. were Germany ($84M), Thailand ($82M) and the Netherlands ($46M), together comprising 42% of total imports. France, Belgium, Pakistan, China, Denmark, Taiwan, Chinese, Viet Nam, Brazil and Poland lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 40%.

Viet Nam recorded the highest growth rate of imports, among the main suppliers over the last five-year period, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the average wet corn import price amounted to $1,083 per tonne, rising by 6.6% against the previous year. In general, the wet corn import price, however, continues to indicate a mild downturn. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the average import price increased by 6.6% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the average import prices for wet corn reached their maximum at $1,194 per tonne in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Belgium ($2,141 per tonne), while the price for Thailand ($641 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Taiwan, Chinese, while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Companies Mentioned in the Report

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Ingredion Incorporated, Roquette America, Inc., Penford Corporation, Penford Products Co., Briess Industries, Inc., Rahr Malting Co., Malteurop North America Inc., Tate & Lyle Ingredients Americas LLC, Malt Products Corporation, Enjoy Life Natural Brands, Semo Milling, Great Western Malting Co, Western Polymer Corporation, Gro Alliance, Philadelphia Beer Works Inc, Unilever Bestfoods North America, Anderson Custom Processing, Tate & Lyle Americas, Great Western Malting, La Aceitera Inc, Holdings In Zone Inc, Staley Holdings, Cornproducts/Mcp Sweeteners, High Sea Sugar

Source: IndexBox AI Platform